Forum:Armory Probability Project
i decided recently that with little else to do in this game at the point i am, i should start doing science. as such, it is my goal to find the drop rates of the various rarities inside the armory. i modded my inventory for this end and used specific methods in order to make the data as accurate as possible. if you wish to add to this data, please adhere to these methods. the number of players should remain the same, all should be level 61 as well. data on 4-player is my highest priority because it's the rarest for me, but any data is appreciated. for testing purposes, i am using a siren with a +2 rare find mod. i intend to test with it and without, and separate those for comparison. please note whether you use one or not, and keep usage consistant. a proper set is 5 runs at a time, only picking up items inside the armory. open every chest, take every item. for 5 runs you will need about 1600 inventory slots. ignore ammo, there's not much and it seems to be in specific chests most of the time. for now, i'm using the rather ugly rarity format of W-G-B-P-Y-O-D-Pe. if someone would like to turn data into a chart, by all means. Data 1P: 187-507-464-343-21-14-26-0 = 1562/set, ~312/run more on this in the next few days, i gotta go pass out now it's light outside all of a sudden. Texhn 12:51, May 12, 2010 (UTC) I can chart your data mate. I can get it done sometime today. Few questions: 1) Did you do the run by yourself? 2) Are the numbers in order white-->pearl? Lablamadaha 15:28, May 12, 2010 (UTC) : yes and yes. charting is much appreciated, though i think i somehow managed to post this in a really weird location. i cannot for the life of me figure out why this doesn't show up in watercooler. at any rate, once a table's up i'm sure i can mess with it and work out how to add new data. Texhn 21:20, May 12, 2010 (UTC) ::Moved to Forum|Watercooler. --Nagamarky 10:32, May 13, 2010 (UTC) ::thanks man i was really confused for a bit. Texhn 14:56, May 13, 2010 (UTC) Been there, done that, got the stats. Ten runs in each set, with all weapons collected: Set 1: L.61 Mordecai w/Assassin classmod; Set 2: L.61 Mordecai w/+2 find rare classmod entering the level, Assassin classmod otherwise; Set 3: L.61 Mordecai w/+2 find rare classmod equipped while opening crates, Assassin classmod entering level and killing Knoxx; Set 4: L.61 Roland. Rarity/Gun is the average rarity. The differences between runs are not statistically significant, thus Mordecai's +2 find rare classmod has no statistically significant effect on crates in the armory. Working on Crawmerax, with just one set of kills to go. -- Aakova May 13, 2010 20:04PST Well done. That is some well compiled and compelling data. Isn't the standard deviation supposed to be the square root of something though? I don't understand how it's almost as high as the mean when its supposed to be the square root of the average of the difference between each integer in the population and the mean squared. GT: ConceitedJarrad XBOX360 05:26, May 14, 2010 (UTC) yeah wow you pretty much just summed that up. i'm interested to see your craw data whenever it's finished as well, as that was gonna be my next project. and after looking at your data, i'm pretty done with rare find. waste of an effect slot really. Texhn 09:33, May 14, 2010 (UTC) For Crawmerax, 41 kills for each of two cases: As with the armory crates, the differences in rarity are not statistically significant. (But 82 solo Crawmerax kills and no pearlescents dropped :-( ). Why is the standard deviation similar to the mean ? It's just a quirk of the numbers. Standard deviation is a measure of the spread around the mean; the first SD will contain ~68% of samples on either side of the mean, the second SD will contain 95%. So the top of the 95% range is (mean + 2 * sd) or around 40 for the armory, and 53 for crawmerax. Now rarity is not linear between purple (the max I've observed for purples is 38) and orage weapons (the minimum for a yellow weapon is 50), so it's interesting that the 95% range falls right at the gap between purple and orange(yellow) weapons. (If I adjust the rarity of yellow and above down to a smooth range, the result still isn't statistically significant.) The other thing one can look at is the percentage of orange weapons in the totals which should be right around 5% given the 2 standard deviation range. For the armory, 488 orange weapons of 9812 is 4.97%, right about where we expect it; for Crawmerax, 344 orange weapons of 3845 is 8.49% instead of the expected 5%. Perhaps this is just a result of the better loot from Crawmerax. -- Aakova May 15, 2010 18:48PST so youre saying that your deviation ranged anywhere from ~1 to ~26?